ABSTRACT:
The world is entering largely unfamiliar territory with respect to population ageing. Combined with the dynamic evolution of past variations in birth and death rates, recent declines in fertility rates and increases in life expectancy are causing a significant shift in the global age structure. The number of people over the age of 60 is projected to reach 1 billion by 2020 and almost 2 billion by 2050, representing 22 percent of the world’s population. The Proportion of individuals aged 80 or over is projected to rise from 1 percent to 4 percent of the global population between today and 20501. The number of people aged 60 and over is growing faster than all other age groups. Health care has improved, which has lengthened life expectancy further. But while people are living longer, it does not necessarily mean that they are working longer years and worse still, there are not enough younger people taking their place in the workforce. Between 1950 and 2050, the global strength of those above 60 years of age is expected to increase from 200 million to 2 billion. For the developed world, this demographics-there are far more retired persons than those working-can cause havoc. Nowhere is this demographic threat felt more acutely than in Western Europe which is likely to experience an increase in the proportion of those above age 60 from the current 18.6% to avery high 35% by 2100. The rapid ageing is virtually certain: 95% of all projection cases lie between 28% and 44% for 2050. North America’s cu8rren proportion of 16% above age 60 is likely to increase to 30% by 2050.